With an additional $13.8 million on Tuesday, Joseph Kosinski’s Top Gun: Maverick has now brought in an astounding $322 million in just 12 days of domestic distribution (thanks to “low ticket Tuesday” at most major theatre chains) and is down just 13% from its debut $15.8 million-grossing Tuesday. It is without a doubt Tom Cruise’s highest-grossing domestic film, and by today it will have surpassed the previous record-holder, Steven Spielberg’s War of the Worlds, which brought in $234 million in 2005, by over/under $100 million. It has already outperformed nearly every Cruise film in terms of inflation-adjusted box office receipts (remember, Cruise was a star back when $30 million was a hefty budget, $15 million was a respectable opening, and $200 million global was an undeniable box office success).
Currently, it will surpass War of the Worlds ($334 million adjusted) in terms of “tickets sold in North America.” The Firm ($158 million in 1993; $358 million adjusted), Mission: Impossible II ($215 million in 2000; 365 million adjusted), Mission: Impossible ($181 million in 1996; 375 million adjusted), Rain Man ($173 million in 1988; $396 million adjusted), and Top Gun ($180 million in 1986; 440 million adjusted) are the only other movies left.
Top Gun 2 may end this weekend close to $400 million in North America, or ahead of every Cruise movie aside from Rain Man and Top Gun by the end of day 17. This is based on the legs and buzz, as well as the likely mixed reviews for Jurassic World: Dominion (I liked it just well enough, but I’m not expecting many raves).
Hollywood used to be a place where Tony Scott’s Top Gun and Barry Levinson’s Oscar-winning Rain Man, featuring Tom Cruise as a self-centered car dealer and Dustin Hoffman as his autistic older brother who is forced to go on a road trip, would make approximately the same amount of money domestically. But I digress. The $170 million legacy sequel from Paramount and Skydance, assuming the film has maintained a 53.1/46.9 domestic/international split, should gross roughly $606 million globally. Since Transformers: Age of Extinction ($1.105 billion in 2014), this surpasses Transformers: The Last Knight ($605 million in 2017) as Paramount’s highest-grossing non-Mission: Impossible film. Additionally, it barely surpasses War of the Worlds ($605 million in 2005), which was Cruise’s highest-grossing movie outside of Mission: Impossible.
Only Shrek the Third ($323 million in 2007), Forrest Gump ($330 million in 1994), Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($402 million in 2009), and Titanic ($658 million in 1997/1998 counting the 3-D reissue in 2012) are ahead of it for Paramount in unadjusted domestic grosses. So, certainly, by the beginning of next week, it ought to be in second position. It will also rank as Paramount’s fourth-highest grosser, behind Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($837 million in 2008), Transformers: Age of Extinction ($1.105 billion in 2014), Transformers: Dark of the Moon ($1.123 billion in 2011), and Titanic ($2.2 billion), when it surpasses Fallout ($792 million in 2018) to become Cruise’s biggest global grosser and Shrek the Third ($807 million in 2007).
The Titanic movie was distributed by Fox internationally, therefore even a (fantasy) $1.124 billion total would make Titanic the highest-grossing 100% Paramount film ever. Speaking of which, Top Gun: Maverick might be Tom Cruise’s first movie to gross $1 billion, though this possibility is not in the least bit assured. According to yesterday’s discussion, Rogue One and The Dark Knight would both need about $530 million domestically to reach a 53/47 domestic/international split. On June 22, South Korea will be the final significant undeveloped region, with Russia and China likely off the agenda. Given the overseas box office thus far, which includes $26 million in Japan, and the fact that the previous three Mission: Impossible films each made between $41 and $51 million in Korea, I would assume Maverick is capable of earning at least that much.
Such a performance suggests that perhaps a domestic cume closer to $500 million could be sufficient to raise its global total above $1 billion, but if you want to ask me again next weekend. Only Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Avatar: The Way of Water may actually be realistically expected to challenge Top Gun: Maverick for the domestic crown in 2022. Top Gun: Maverick is now almost a lock to be the summer’s top domestic grosser. But Jurassic World: Dominion is a threequel to a series whose previous two movies brought in $1.671 billion and $1.308 billion worldwide, respectively, and whose positive consumer reviews frequently outweigh the franchise’s mixed critical reaction. In any case, it’s already a victory that we’re having this discussion about a movie that, at $550 million, would have been a clear overperformer.